Prior to the recent developments, Iraq was navigating a complex landscape marked by the presence of various armed factions, particularly the Iran-aligned Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). These groups had largely operated with a degree of autonomy, often clashing with U.S. interests but maintaining a fragile equilibrium within the broader context of Iraqi sovereignty. The expectation was that the Iraqi government could manage these factions while balancing foreign influences, particularly from the United States and Iran.

On March 24, 2026, a decisive moment occurred when an aerial attack on a military base in Anbar province resulted in the deaths of seven fighters and injuries to 13 others. This attack specifically targeted the PMF, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. The PMF condemned the strike as a “blatant aggression [that] constitutes a grave violation of national sovereignty,” highlighting the immediate outrage and the implications for Iraq’s internal security.

The Iraqi government reacted swiftly to the attack, with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani instructing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to summon the U.S. charge d’affaires in Baghdad. This move underscores the seriousness with which the Iraqi leadership views the violation of its military units. Additionally, the Ministry of Defence labeled the attack as “a heinous crime,” indicating a unified governmental stance against foreign military actions on Iraqi soil.

In the aftermath, Iraq’s government announced intentions to file a formal complaint with the United Nations Security Council, reflecting a desire to internationalize the issue and seek accountability for the airstrikes. The PMF has also been granted a “right to respond” to any attacks against it, suggesting that further military actions may be forthcoming as tensions escalate.

These airstrikes are notable not only for their immediate impact but also for the broader implications they carry. The attack on March 24, which killed 15 fighters, including a commander, was reported to be the first time the PMF was targeted alongside the broader Iraqi military. This shift indicates a new phase in the conflict, where U.S. military actions are increasingly directed at Iraqi armed factions, rather than solely at ISIS or other extremist groups.

Experts like Assed Baig have noted that the strikes demonstrate “an escalation in terms of the PMF being targeted,” suggesting that the U.S. is recalibrating its military strategy in Iraq. The ongoing tensions between pro-Iran armed groups and U.S. interests are becoming more pronounced, with Iraq increasingly resembling a battlefield for these competing influences.

As the situation develops, the potential for further conflict remains high. The Iraqi government is under pressure to respond to these attacks while maintaining its sovereignty and managing the diverse interests of its armed factions. Increasingly, Iraq is becoming a focal point for geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iranian influence and U.S. military presence in the region.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the full extent of the U.S. military’s involvement and future operations in Iraq, but the recent airstrikes have undoubtedly shifted the landscape of the conflict, raising questions about the future of Iraq’s internal stability and its relationships with foreign powers.

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The conflict has escalated following the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This pivotal event has led to increased military tensions in the region, particularly involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. In the wake of these developments, Iranian leadership has faced immense pressure to respond to ongoing military actions against the country.

New Military Policy Announced

On March 7, 2026, Masoud Pezeshkian, a prominent Iranian political figure, addressed the nation through a prerecorded message. He stated that neighboring countries would no longer be targeted by Iranian forces unless an attack originates from those nations. This marks a significant shift in Iran’s military policy, which has been under scrutiny amid escalating hostilities.

Apology to Neighboring Countries

Pezeshkian also took the opportunity to apologize to neighboring countries for recent strikes that have occurred as part of the ongoing conflict. His statements reflect a desire to de-escalate tensions and reassure regional partners that Iran does not intend to initiate aggression against them.

Directive from the Interim Leadership Council

The Iranian interim leadership council has approved a new directive that outlines the conditions under which military action may be taken. According to Pezeshkian, Iranian forces are now prohibited from targeting neighboring states unless an attack against Iran is launched directly from that country’s territory. This policy aims to clarify Iran’s military stance and reduce the likelihood of further conflict.

Role of the IRGC in Military Decisions

In his address, Pezeshkian highlighted that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is currently in charge of Iran’s military decisions. Resul Serdar, another key figure, emphasized that the IRGC will determine whether to attack or not, indicating a centralized approach to military strategy in response to external threats.

Impact of US and Israeli Airstrikes

The backdrop of these statements includes ongoing airstrikes conducted by the United States and Israel against Iranian targets. Reports indicate that more than 1,200 Iranians have been killed in these attacks during the first week of the conflict. This significant loss of life underscores the urgency of Pezeshkian’s message and the need for a coherent military policy moving forward.

Future Implications

Observers note that Pezeshkian’s statements may signal a potential shift in Iran’s military engagement strategy, aimed at reducing regional tensions while still addressing security concerns. As the IRGC takes the lead in military decisions, the international community will be closely monitoring how these new policies are implemented and their impact on the ongoing conflict.

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The health ministry of Lebanon reported that airstrikes resulted in the deaths of 52 individuals and injured over 150 on Monday, as Israeli aircraft targeted locations in the southern suburbs of Beirut and various regions across the nation.

Israeli Airstrikes Intensify Conflict

The airstrikes were conducted as a response to rockets launched from southern Lebanon into Israel during the night, although they resulted in no damage or injuries.

“We have initiated a strategic offensive against Hezbollah … we need to brace ourselves for an extended period of combat ahead,” stated Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, the leader of the Israeli military.

A different military representative stated that “all possibilities remain available” when a reporter inquired if Israel would also initiate a ground offensive across the border into Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s Role in Escalation

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“We are also active in Lebanon to eliminate a major threat… ultimately, every option remains viable. We will take measures to neutralize Hezbollah,” stated Brigadier General Effie Defrin during a televised press conference.

Following the attacks, the Lebanese government imposed a ban on military operations by Hezbollah, marking a significant change in stance against the Iran-supported group that had previously wielded considerable influence in the nation’s political landscape.

Casualties from Recent Attacks

An Israeli airstrike occurred in southern Lebanon on Monday, captured by JALAA MAREY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES.

A source from Israeli security indicated that Israel was preparing to target the group “both politically and financially,” in addition to its infrastructure.

“Israel is prepared to take strong action against Hezbollah, potentially leading to their dismantlement, with all options being considered,” the source stated. “They entered this conflict in a vulnerable position, and they will emerge significantly weaker.”

Future of Regional Stability

During the conflict in 2023-24, Israel significantly weakened Hezbollah, although the organization has pledged to retaliate for what it referred to as the “pure blood” of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, who was killed on Saturday.

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Israel continues to maintain five military installations in southern Lebanon as remnants of the recent conflict, during which Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed, resulting in numerous militants being injured and several fatalities in a dramatic incident involving detonating pagers. This war concluded with a ceasefire and the anticipated disarmament of the group located south of the Litani River.

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Despite a significant reduction in the group’s missile stockpile, it is still believed to possess approximately 25,000 short-range missiles capable of reaching Israel, with the potential to launch multiple missiles daily, as reported by intelligence sources.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that it targeted 70 facilities for weapon storage, launch sites, and missile launchers during the strikes on Monday.

The consequences of an Israeli attack on Beirut occurred on Monday MOHAMED AZAKIR/REUTERS

Bridget Toomey, a research analyst at the US-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, specializing in Iranian proxies, stated: “The significance of proxies as a fundamental component of the Islamic Republic’s defense and deterrence strategy essentially traces back to the regime’s inception, with the clerical leadership having heavily invested in these groups over the years.”

“As long as any components of the Islamic Republic regime persist, they will seek to sustain and utilize proxy forces to intimidate [their] adversaries,” Toomey stated.

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The involvement of Hezbollah in the conflict prompts inquiries regarding the actions of other Iranian-affiliated groups in the area. Among these are the Houthis in Yemen, who have previously targeted Israel and maritime vessels in the Red Sea with numerous drones and missiles during the Gaza conflict, yet have not declared any involvement thus far.

The group governs extensive areas of Yemen, including the capital city, Sanaa, following a civil conflict that started in 2015 and fractured the nation. The southern and eastern regions are still under the authority of a government recognized internationally.

According to two high-ranking Houthi officials, the rebels might enter the conflict, but they are currently honoring an agreement with the Trump administration to cease their assaults on the crucial shipping lane in the Red Sea. Additionally, there are several pro-Iranian Shia militias in Iraq that reportedly have differing opinions on whether to participate in the war alongside Iran.

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